Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -110 SAM -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.5 (+6.5) | 146.1 (-21.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.0 (+7.0) | 145.9 (-20.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.2 (+6.8) | 145.1 (-20.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.0 (+7.0) | 147.2 (-22.2) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SAM 87 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | 5.1 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#191) | 1.24 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#179) | 1.36 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.563 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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