Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -400 ETSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -8.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.8 (-1.8) | 147.8 (-2.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -8.6 (-1.6) | 149.5 (-4.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -8.3 (-1.3) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -7.6 (-0.6) | 149.8 (-4.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SAM 87 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#78) | -1.3 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#46) | 0.20 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#64) | 0.13 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#32) | 0.514 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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