Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -188 GWEB +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -6.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.2 (-1.2) | 131.7 (-8.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -6.5 (-1.5) | 128.9 (-5.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -5.7 (-0.7) | 131.6 (-8.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -6.1 (-1.1) | 132.8 (-9.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | LONG 91 – 56 GWEB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | LONG 90 – 77 GWEB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GWEB 92 – 87 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#125) | -0.4 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#159) | -0.76 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#166) | -0.83 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.452 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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