Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB +100 LONG -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +5 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -0.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.5 (+5.5) | 149.0 (+30.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.3 (+5.3) | 146.6 (+32.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -0.4 (+4.6) | 148.2 (+30.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.3 (+5.3) | 150.5 (+28.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | LONG 91 – 56 GWEB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | LONG 90 – 77 GWEB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 25, 2024 | GWEB 76 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#234) | -0.7 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#228) | 0.49 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#226) | 0.37 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#203) | 0.518 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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