Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -170 GWEB +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -5.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -5.2 (+7.8) | 150.4 (+16.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -4.5 (+8.5) | 148.3 (+18.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -4.4 (+8.6) | 150.9 (+16.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.4 (+8.6) | 151.7 (+15.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | LONG 91 – 56 GWEB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GWEB 92 – 87 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 25, 2024 | GWEB 76 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#194) | -4.6 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#183) | -0.72 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#187) | -0.91 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#192) | 0.485 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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