Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -1650 GWEB +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +35 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -16.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -13.1 (+21.9) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -13.0 (+22.0) | 149.2 (-2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -13.7 (+21.3) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -13.9 (+21.1) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | LONG 90 – 77 GWEB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GWEB 92 – 87 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 25, 2024 | GWEB 76 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 1-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 86.7 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#291) | -21.8 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#304) | -4.29 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#286) | -5.84 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#316) | 0.397 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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