Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -175 GWEB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LONG -7.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -5.6 (-17.6) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -5.0 (-17.0) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -4.3 (-16.3) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -4.3 (-16.3) | 140.9 (-0.9) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LONG 86 – 66 GWEB |
| Jan 22, 2026 | LONG 91 – 56 GWEB |
| Feb 20, 2025 | LONG 90 – 77 GWEB |
| Jan 30, 2025 | GWEB 92 – 87 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2024 | GWEB 72 – 69 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -2.9 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#193) | -0.55 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#207) | -1.01 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#204) | 0.478 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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