Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -138 ARK +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -0.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -1.8 (+1.2) | 155.9 (-0.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -0.4 (+2.6) | 152.6 (+2.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -1.7 (+1.3) | 154.0 (+1.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -1.8 (+1.2) | 154.0 (+1.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#55) | 12.7 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#37) | 1.89 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#43) | 2.35 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#40) | 0.619 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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