Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -250 MIZ +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.5 (+9.5) | 148.7 (+12.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.3 (+9.7) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.6 (+9.4) | 146.6 (+14.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.0 (+10.0) | 147.3 (+13.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARK 91 – 84 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 0-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 2-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#122) | 2.0 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#95) | -0.37 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#100) | -0.20 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#97) | 0.478 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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