Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -135 MIZ +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -0.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -0.1 (+7.1) | 148.2 (+28.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.0 (+6.0) | 146.3 (+30.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.0 (+6.0) | 148.1 (+28.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.5 (+5.5) | 147.2 (+29.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARK 91 – 84 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#34) | 18.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#42) | 3.54 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#42) | 4.47 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#71) | 0.617 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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