Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -250 ARK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -4.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -3.1 (-10.1) | 144.9 (+30.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -3.3 (-10.3) | 145.0 (+30.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.7 (-9.7) | 142.5 (+32.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.6 (-9.6) | 141.8 (+33.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 0-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-11 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L19 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | 2.9 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#153) | 1.02 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#133) | 1.15 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#166) | 0.547 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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