Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -470 MIZ +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -12.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -13.8 (-5.8) | 162.2 (+17.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -11.0 (-3.0) | 163.5 (+16.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.7 (-3.7) | 162.7 (+17.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -12.4 (-4.4) | 162.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARK 91 – 84 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#13) | 10.0 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#24) | 2.23 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#21) | 2.58 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#17) | 0.567 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.