Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -155 ARK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -5.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -2.9 (-1.1) | 162.0 (+10.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.3 (-1.7) | 163.0 (+9.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.1 (-1.9) | 161.9 (+10.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.3 (+1.3) | 164.2 (+7.8) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARK 91 – 84 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#54) | 19.6 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#43) | 3.05 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#46) | 3.96 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#58) | 0.632 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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