Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MIZ -240 ARK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -5.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -5.0 (+13.0) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -6.7 (+11.3) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -6.3 (+11.7) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -7.6 (+10.4) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ARK 91 – 84 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#30) | 13.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#11) | 1.65 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#18) | 2.30 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#40) | 0.546 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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