Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USF +145 CIN -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +16 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -2.4 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -2.4 (-13.6) | 144.2 (+9.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -2.7 (-13.3) | 142.6 (+11.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -2.3 (-13.7) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -2.7 (-13.3) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2023 | CIN 84 – 65 USF |
| Feb 27, 2022 | USF 56 – 54 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CIN 70 – 59 USF |
| Dec 17, 2020 | USF 74 – 71 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-9 | 16-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#143) | 7.7 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#240) | 0.93 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#203) | 1.09 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#213) | 0.551 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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