Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -7.7 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -7.1 (-3.9) | 128.3 (+0.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.7 (-4.3) | 126.4 (+2.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -7.9 (-3.1) | 127.5 (+1.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -8.3 (-2.7) | 125.5 (+3.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2023 | CIN 84 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2023 | CIN 85 – 69 USF |
| Feb 27, 2022 | USF 56 – 54 CIN |
| Dec 17, 2020 | USF 74 – 71 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#231) | 7.5 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#219) | 1.23 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#209) | 1.73 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#245) | 0.546 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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