Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -500 USF +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -11.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -11.6 (+7.4) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -12.2 (+6.8) | 148.3 (+0.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -11.4 (+7.6) | 149.3 (-0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -10.8 (+8.2) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2023 | CIN 85 – 69 USF |
| Feb 27, 2022 | USF 56 – 54 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CIN 70 – 59 USF |
| Dec 17, 2020 | USF 74 – 71 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-3 | 9-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#57) | 0.9 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#91) | -0.56 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#91) | -0.18 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#105) | 0.472 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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