Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | CIN -450 USF +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | CIN -11.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -5.9 (-8.9) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -5.1 (-8.1) | 135.6 (+9.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -6.4 (-9.4) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -5.4 (-8.4) | 134.6 (+10.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2023 | CIN 84 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2023 | CIN 85 – 69 USF |
| Feb 27, 2022 | USF 56 – 54 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CIN 70 – 59 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Home | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#96) | -1.6 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#131) | 0.80 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#114) | 1.15 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#44) | 0.582 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 82.0% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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