Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | INST -138 BRAD +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -0.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.7 (-11.7) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -0.4 (-10.6) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.8 (-11.8) | 137.3 (+7.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.6 (-12.6) | 137.8 (+7.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#102) | 7.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | 0.73 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#133) | 0.81 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.542 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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