Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | INST +190 BRAD -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +9 | 207 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -1.2 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+63.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -0.8 (-8.2) | 141.3 (+65.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -1.7 (-7.3) | 142.2 (+64.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.3 (-9.3) | 139.7 (+67.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -0.4 (-8.6) | 141.2 (+65.8) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | INST 85 – 77 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#204) | 2.9 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#202) | 0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#221) | 0.07 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#253) | 0.493 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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