Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | INST -345 BRAD +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | INST -8.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.9 (+1.1) | 150.1 (+30.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -7.2 (+1.8) | 150.4 (+30.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -7.0 (+2.0) | 152.3 (+28.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -7.2 (+1.8) | 152.3 (+28.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Dec 2, 2023 | INST 85 – 77 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#27) | 8.8 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#20) | 1.49 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#29) | 1.70 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#30) | 0.601 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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