Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -154 INST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -1.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -2.9 (-10.9) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.5 (-10.5) | 152.0 (+10.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -3.5 (-11.5) | 148.9 (+13.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.4 (-10.4) | 151.5 (+10.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#83) | 10.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#27) | 1.80 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#43) | 2.11 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.715 (#2) | 0.601 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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