Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -425 INST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +53 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -10.8 (+42.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -13.1 (+39.9) | 155.9 (+27.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -10.1 (+42.9) | 158.9 (+24.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -10.6 (+42.4) | 158.7 (+24.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -10.7 (+42.3) | 156.3 (+26.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | INST 85 – 77 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#95) | -1.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#55) | -0.40 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#75) | -0.54 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#53) | 0.471 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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