I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Missouri Valley Conference · Carver Arena · January 22, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BRAD -8.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Under
Money BRAD -380 / INST +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total BRAD win
Actual BRAD +7 143 Won
Massey BRAD -8.2 (-1.2)
Massey Totals 158.8 (-15.8)
Bradley-Terry 85%
Weighted B-T 90%
Efficiency Plus ML BRAD -8.6 (-1.6) 154.4 (-11.4) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML BRAD -6.2 (+0.8) 149.4 (-6.4) 78%
Baseline ML BRAD -7.0 (-0.0) 151.7 (-8.7) 78%
Baseline Plus ML BRAD -7.7 (-0.7) 154.4 (-11.4) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 19, 2025 BRAD 10899 INST
Jan 16, 2025 BRAD 11865 INST
Jan 2, 2025 BRAD 9089 INST
Jan 27, 2024 INST 9586 BRAD
Dec 2, 2023 INST 8577 BRAD

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BRAD INST
Overall 21-13 11-21
Conference 13-7 4-16
Home 14-3 8-7
Away 4-7 3-12
Neutral 3-3 0-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.0 71.7
Avg Pts Against 74.2 75.1
Massey 2.9 (#127) -2.1 (#194)
Bradley-Terry 0.51 (#122) -0.65 (#228)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.49 (#130) -1.05 (#241)
RPI 0.541 (#97) 0.473 (#227)
Shooting & Four Factors BRAD INST
FG% 43.5% 44.8%
3PT% 35.0% 30.4%
REB / G 35.0 34.1
OREB / G 10.3 8.8
AST / TO 1.31 1.34
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.6% 51.7%
TOV% 13.8% 17.5%
ORB% 27.5% 24.8%
FT Rate 26.6% 21.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.4% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 15.5%
DRB% 71.4% 68.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.3% 17.8%

Game Analysis

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