Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -380 INST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -8.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -7.7 (-0.7) | 154.4 (-11.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -8.6 (-1.6) | 154.4 (-11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.2 (+0.8) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -7.0 (-0.0) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | INST 85 – 77 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#127) | -2.1 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#122) | -0.65 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#130) | -1.05 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#97) | 0.473 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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