Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | INST +155 BRAD -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +1 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -4.2 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.1 (+1.1) | 154.8 (+24.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -4.2 (+3.2) | 156.6 (+22.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -3.5 (+2.5) | 156.9 (+22.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -4.3 (+3.3) | 155.2 (+23.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
| Dec 2, 2023 | INST 85 – 77 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#187) | 6.9 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#201) | 1.79 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#214) | 1.87 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.579 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 44.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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