Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +350 PITT -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +21 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -13.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -13.8 (-7.2) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.3 (-8.7) | 141.4 (-12.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -12.7 (-8.3) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -13.5 (-7.5) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 4-13 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#324) | 8.1 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#348) | 1.70 (#48) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#324) | 2.26 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#304) | 0.585 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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