Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PITT +260 LOU -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +41 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -9.0 (-32.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.6 (-34.4) | 147.1 (+11.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.0 (-35.0) | 150.3 (+8.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -4.8 (-36.2) | 146.1 (+12.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -5.9 (-35.1) | 146.0 (+13.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | PITT 91 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#89) | 19.7 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#130) | 2.29 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#126) | 3.17 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.592 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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