Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1600 LOU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +34 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -19.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -17.2 (+16.8) | 138.4 (+9.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.9 (+21.1) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -15.8 (+18.2) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -16.5 (+17.5) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-13 |
| Away | 7-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#70) | -8.6 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#44) | -2.04 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#48) | -1.73 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#51) | 0.421 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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