Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PITT -1000 LOU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -14.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -13.5 (+13.5) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -15.5 (+11.5) | 145.1 (-0.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -13.1 (+13.9) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -12.5 (+14.5) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | PITT 91 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#47) | -0.6 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#57) | -0.42 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#65) | -0.32 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#102) | 0.459 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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