Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -700 PITT +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -7.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.0 (+2.0) | 148.2 (-1.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -7.0 (+4.0) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -9.0 (+2.0) | 149.2 (-2.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -8.6 (+2.4) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | PITT 91 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#26) | 11.4 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#19) | 1.40 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#21) | 1.77 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#18) | 0.550 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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