Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -175 LOU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -7.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -7.2 (-11.2) | 150.4 (+9.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -6.2 (-10.2) | 147.9 (+12.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -6.0 (-10.0) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -6.0 (-10.0) | 149.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PITT 83 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | PITT 91 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#20) | 13.2 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#20) | 2.82 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#24) | 3.69 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#13) | 0.638 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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