Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LOU +310 PITT -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +13 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -12.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -12.2 (-0.8) | 142.6 (+10.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -11.2 (-1.8) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -10.8 (-2.2) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -10.7 (-2.3) | 143.3 (+9.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | LOU 100 – 59 PITT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LOU 79 – 68 PITT |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LOU 82 – 78 PITT |
| Feb 17, 2024 | PITT 86 – 59 LOU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | PITT 91 – 57 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#255) | 11.6 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#296) | 0.91 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.91 (#297) | 1.43 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#304) | 0.548 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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