Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +310 ORE -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +29 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -5.9 (-23.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -6.7 (-22.3) | 133.7 (+11.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -7.3 (-21.7) | 130.1 (+14.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -6.5 (-22.5) | 132.3 (+12.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -6.6 (-22.4) | 135.1 (+9.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | CAL 69 – 64 ORE |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ORE 80 – 73 CAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ORE 84 – 51 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2022 | CAL 78 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORE 74 – 63 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 12-8 |
| Home | 3-14 | 15-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#208) | 8.1 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#309) | 1.21 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#282) | 1.61 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#292) | 0.561 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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