Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +115 ORE -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -2.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -1.4 (+6.4) | 146.4 (-13.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -3.2 (+8.2) | 146.6 (-13.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.1 (+7.1) | 148.7 (-15.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -1.3 (+6.3) | 147.0 (-14.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2024 | ORE 80 – 73 CAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ORE 84 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 19, 2023 | ORE 87 – 58 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2022 | CAL 78 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORE 74 – 63 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#116) | 9.4 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | 1.72 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#119) | 1.97 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#180) | 0.573 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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