Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -10000 CAL +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +33 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -18.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -16.3 (+16.7) | 131.8 (+3.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -15.5 (+17.5) | 131.2 (+3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -15.6 (+17.4) | 132.8 (+2.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -15.9 (+17.1) | 132.6 (+2.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | CAL 69 – 64 ORE |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ORE 80 – 73 CAL |
| Jan 19, 2023 | ORE 87 – 58 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2022 | CAL 78 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORE 74 – 63 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-6 | 3-14 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#50) | -4.9 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#73) | -1.88 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#66) | -1.83 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#72) | 0.423 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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