Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -400 CAL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -11.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -11.2 (-4.2) | 150.4 (+2.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -12.4 (-5.4) | 148.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -11.8 (-4.8) | 153.4 (-0.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -11.6 (-4.6) | 151.9 (+1.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | CAL 69 – 64 ORE |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ORE 84 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 19, 2023 | ORE 87 – 58 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2022 | CAL 78 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORE 74 – 63 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#61) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#36) | -0.44 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#48) | -0.07 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#37) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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