I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Oregon Ducks
80 73
FINAL Conference
California Golden Bears
Pac-12 Conference · Matthew Knight Arena · January 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -8.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money ORE -400 / CAL +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ORE +7 153 Won
Massey ORE -11.4 (-4.4)
Massey Totals 155.3 (-2.3)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 96%
Efficiency Plus ML ORE -12.4 (-5.4) 148.4 (+4.6) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -11.2 (-4.2) 150.4 (+2.6) 85%
Baseline ML ORE -11.6 (-4.6) 151.9 (+1.1) 85%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -11.8 (-4.8) 153.4 (-0.4) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2024 CAL 6964 ORE
Mar 3, 2023 ORE 8451 CAL
Jan 19, 2023 ORE 8758 CAL
Feb 12, 2022 CAL 7864 ORE
Feb 27, 2021 ORE 7463 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE CAL
Overall 24-12 13-19
Conference 12-8 9-11
Home 13-3 10-6
Away 6-5 3-8
Neutral 5-4 0-5
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L4
Avg Pts For 75.6 74.0
Avg Pts Against 72.3 77.0
Massey 8.6 (#61) 1.2 (#147)
Bradley-Terry 2.08 (#36) -0.44 (#223)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.31 (#48) -0.07 (#188)
RPI 0.598 (#37) 0.481 (#210)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE CAL
FG% 47.3% 43.0%
3PT% 36.8% 34.7%
REB / G 35.3 37.4
OREB / G 10.2 11.8
AST / TO 1.29 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.1% 50.6%
TOV% 15.7% 18.1%
ORB% 29.9% 32.4%
FT Rate 25.1% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 15.7%
DRB% 72.8% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 24.7% 25.1%

Game Analysis

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