Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
| Money | ORE -1100 CAL +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +14 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -11.0 (-25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -11.0 (-25.0) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -11.5 (-25.5) | 135.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -10.6 (-24.6) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -10.3 (-24.3) | 136.7 (+5.3) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | CAL 69 – 64 ORE |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ORE 80 – 73 CAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ORE 84 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 19, 2023 | ORE 87 – 58 CAL |
| Feb 27, 2021 | ORE 74 – 63 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#51) | 1.9 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#48) | 0.10 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#44) | 0.25 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#39) | 0.475 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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