Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +350 ORE -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +11 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -8.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -7.2 (-3.8) | 133.4 (+3.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -6.9 (-4.1) | 128.9 (+8.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -7.5 (-3.5) | 132.3 (+4.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -7.3 (-3.7) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | CAL 69 – 64 ORE |
| Jan 14, 2024 | ORE 80 – 73 CAL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ORE 84 – 51 CAL |
| Jan 19, 2023 | ORE 87 – 58 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2022 | CAL 78 – 64 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 21-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#174) | 10.7 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#200) | 2.06 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | 2.52 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#245) | 0.580 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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