See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
California Golden Bears
63 74
FINAL Conference
Oregon Ducks
Pac-12 Conference · Haas Pavilion · February 27, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -8.5 Away covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money CAL +350 / ORE -400
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual ORE +11 137 Lost
Massey ORE -8.6 (-2.4)
Massey Totals 132.6 (+4.4)
Bradley-Terry 12%
Weighted B-T 10%
Efficiency Plus ML ORE -6.9 (-4.1) 128.9 (+8.1) 25%
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -7.2 (-3.8) 133.4 (+3.6) 24%
Baseline ML ORE -7.3 (-3.7) 131.4 (+5.6) 29%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -7.5 (-3.5) 132.3 (+4.7) 23%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 25, 2024 CAL 6964 ORE
Jan 14, 2024 ORE 8073 CAL
Mar 3, 2023 ORE 8451 CAL
Jan 19, 2023 ORE 8758 CAL
Feb 12, 2022 CAL 7864 ORE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL ORE
Overall 9-20 21-7
Conference 3-17 14-4
Home 6-8 11-2
Away 1-11 7-2
Neutral 1-1 4-3
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.7 72.3
Avg Pts Against 69.5 66.0
Massey -0.4 (#174) 10.7 (#46)
Bradley-Terry -0.36 (#200) 2.06 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#180) 2.52 (#49)
RPI 0.457 (#245) 0.580 (#45)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL ORE
FG% 42.3% 45.7%
3PT% 32.3% 35.4%
REB / G 30.9 34.4
OREB / G 8.0 9.8
AST / TO 0.92 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.9% 52.4%
TOV% 19.2% 17.4%
ORB% 24.2% 29.4%
FT Rate 24.1% 18.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.6% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 20.9%
DRB% 74.9% 72.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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