Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -175 LAF +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -6.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.7 (-15.7) | 129.4 (-0.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.2 (-15.2) | 127.1 (+1.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.2 (-15.2) | 131.5 (-2.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.7 (-15.7) | 131.8 (-2.8) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-9 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#194) | -3.8 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | -1.60 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#182) | -1.80 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.445 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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