Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -155 LAF +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -5.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.5 (-2.5) | 132.4 (-14.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.6 (-2.6) | 133.7 (-15.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.4 (-2.4) | 134.1 (-16.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.6 (-2.6) | 133.6 (-15.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAF 68 – 62 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -7.9 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#200) | -1.53 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#213) | -1.72 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#162) | 0.429 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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