Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
| Money | AMER -225 LAF +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -6.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.1 (-11.1) | 130.8 (-0.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.4 (-10.4) | 131.4 (-1.4) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.9 (-10.9) | 132.8 (-2.8) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.5 (-10.5) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#262) | -8.4 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#300) | -1.69 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#288) | -2.12 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#299) | 0.444 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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