Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +154 AMER -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +14 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -2.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.2 (-11.8) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.6 (-11.4) | 138.3 (-2.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -3.0 (-11.0) | 139.8 (-3.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.6 (-11.4) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAF 68 – 62 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#322) | -5.2 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#337) | -0.99 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#340) | -1.18 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#334) | 0.476 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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