Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -175 LAF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -5.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -4.6 (-2.6) | 130.7 (+9.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.3 (-2.3) | 133.2 (+6.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.5 (-2.5) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -4.7 (-2.7) | 131.0 (+9.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAF 68 – 62 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#254) | -7.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#204) | -1.52 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#218) | -1.74 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#147) | 0.433 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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