Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -258 LAF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -9.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -8.1 (-10.1) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -7.7 (-9.7) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -7.6 (-9.6) | 140.4 (-8.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -7.6 (-9.6) | 138.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAF 68 – 62 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#233) | -10.3 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#215) | -2.37 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#227) | -2.89 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.386 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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