Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | LAF +100 AMER -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.7 (-6.3) | 136.0 (+7.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.3 (-7.3) | 134.9 (+8.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.7 (-6.3) | 137.0 (+6.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.6 (-6.4) | 139.0 (+4.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAF 68 – 62 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#292) | -5.4 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#308) | -0.37 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#290) | -0.59 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#314) | 0.494 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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