Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -450 PROV +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -6.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -5.7 (+2.3) | 157.0 (+1.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -4.5 (+3.5) | 154.0 (+4.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -5.2 (+2.8) | 155.6 (+2.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -5.5 (+2.5) | 155.6 (+2.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#15) | 11.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#25) | 2.29 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#17) | 3.01 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#37) | 0.588 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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