Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -148 PROV +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +1 | 209 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.1 (+31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.8 (+2.8) | 159.4 (+49.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.2 (+1.2) | 163.0 (+46.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.6 (+3.6) | 162.8 (+46.2) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.4 (+3.4) | 159.3 (+49.7) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 29, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 69 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#136) | 8.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#207) | 1.06 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#202) | 1.66 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.536 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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