Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -800 PROV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -9.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -10.3 (+11.7) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -9.8 (+12.2) | 147.1 (+12.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -10.4 (+11.6) | 148.1 (+11.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -9.8 (+12.2) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#15) | 10.2 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#6) | 1.71 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#8) | 2.20 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#11) | 0.564 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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