Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -180 MARQ +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +22 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -6.6 (-28.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.7 (-39.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -6.6 (-28.6) | 162.1 (-28.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -6.2 (-28.2) | 164.1 (-30.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.4 (-28.4) | 160.0 (-26.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.6 (-28.6) | 161.0 (-27.0) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 29, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 69 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#69) | 5.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#83) | 0.27 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#74) | 0.58 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#147) | 0.475 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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