Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -1400 PROV +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +30 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -12.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -12.0 (+18.0) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -11.8 (+18.2) | 146.2 (-12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -13.3 (+16.7) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -12.6 (+17.4) | 147.2 (-13.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 29, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 69 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#28) | 6.4 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#33) | 0.52 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#28) | 1.00 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#25) | 0.512 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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